A mere eight weeks in the past that the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his performances were a symptom or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
